Step 5: Determine Certainty Levels

For any range defined in a forecast chart, Oracle Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management calculates the resulting certainty. The chance of any forecast value falling between –Infinity and +Infinity is always 100%. However, the chance (certainty) of that same forecast being at least zero (which you might want to calculate to make sure that you make a profit) might be only 45%. This way, not only do you know that your company has a chance to make a profit, but you can also quantify that chance by saying that the company has a 45% chance of making a profit on a venture (a venture you might, therefore, decide to skip).

  To define certainty, perform one of the following actions in a forecast chart:

  • Enter a value in the Certainty field below the forecast chart

  • Enter a value in the fields on each side of the Certainty field below the forecast chart

  • Use certainty grabbers

    • In the forecast chart, move the certainty grabbers to focus on a particular part of the display area.

    • To anchor a certainty grabber, click it. To unanchor it, click it again.

    • To anchor or unanchor both certainty grabbers at once, use Ctrl+click.

      If you unanchor both certainty grabbers and enter a certainty level, the grabbers move to define the appropriate certainty range.

    • To determine the certainty of values at the ends, move both certainty grabbers from one end to the other, crossing them.

    Note:

    The Certainty field and the minimum and maximum fields on each side of it are accessible with the Tab key.