Interpreting the Results

To interpret the OptQuest results, start by viewing the forecast chart for the best simulation. If it is not already onscreen, select Analyze, Forecast Charts and select Total Expected Return.

Figure 32, Portfolio Allocation Forecast Chart, Split View, following, shows the forecast chart and statistics in Split view. Notice that the standard deviation of the forecast is quite high, $16,258, compared to the mean return of $10,387. The ratio of these two values, the coefficient of variability, is shown as 1.57, or greater than 150%. Most of the money allocated was in the Aggressive Growth fund, and the uncertainty of returns for that fund was quite high, indicating the relative riskiness of the investment.

Figure 32. Portfolio Allocation Forecast Chart, Split View

Portfolio allocation forecast chart, Split view.