Analyzing and Using Extracted Results

You can use extracted data as input for spreadsheet analysis or you can copy it into other applications. For an example of how to use the Results and Methods tables, see Working with Data in Interactive Tables. These are Microsoft Excel PivotTables, described in Microsoft documentation and help.

Results Table

Even though Predictor tried all the methods you selected in the Method Gallery, it generates the Results table using the best method, unless you overrode the best method, in which case, the program generates the result values using the overriding method.

Methods Table

The Methods table reports all the parameters and statistics for the methods you selected in the Methods panel. The method used to generate the forecasted values, either the best method or the overriding method, is highlighted in bold text. The method is likely to be different for each forecasted series.

To compare the quality of the results of different time-series forecasting methods, select the errors: RMSE, MAD, and MAPE. For all of these, the smaller the better. If you compare the RMSE of one method to the RMSE of another method, the smaller one should be ranked better. However, you cannot compare the RMSE of one method to the MAD or MAPE of another method.

To compare the quality of a regression, look for the following values:

Table 2. Evaluating Regression Quality

StatisticRangeIdeal ValueIdeal Value Interpretation
R2 or Adjusted R20 to 1Close to 1The linear regression accounts for almost all the variability in the dependent data.
F probability0 to 1Less than 0.05The quality of the overall regression (dependency of the dependent variable on the independent variables) is good.
t probability0 to 1Less than 0.05The quality of the coefficient of the regression equation is good.
Durbin-Watson0 to 42No autocorrelation (at lag 1) exists.
Theil’s UGreater than 0Less than 1The quality of the results is better than guessing.

See the Predictor sections of Oracle Crystal Ball Reference and Examples Guide.