RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

Imagine playing a game in which someone asks you to infer the number of sides of a polyhedron die based on the face numbers that show up in repeated throws of the die. The only information you are given beforehand is that the actual die will be selected from a set of seven die having these number of faces: (4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 18). Assuming you can trust the person who reports the outcome on each throw, after how many rolls of the die wil you be willing to specify which die was chosen?

Oracle Crystal Ball has a complete set of functions that allows a modeler to extract information from both inputs (assumptions) and outputs (forecast). Used the right way, these special Crystal Ball functions can enable a whole new level of analytics that can feed other models (or subcomponents of the major model).

Understanding these is a must for anybody who is looking to use the developer kit.