RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

How I Learned to Think of Business as a Scientific Experiment

Bayesian Reasoning using R (Part 2) : Discrete Inference with Sequential Data
Imagine playing a game in which someone asks you to infer the number of sides of a polyhedron die based on the face numbers that show up in repeated throws of the die. The only information you are given beforehand is that the actual die will be selected from a set of seven die having these number of faces: (4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 18). Assuming you can trust the person who reports the outcome on each throw, after how many rolls of the die wil you be willing to specify which die was chosen?
  • 6 November 2018
  • Author: Robert Brown
  • Number of views: 191
  • Comments: 0

A structured way to make sure you got all the info you need

Are you asking the right questions?
Whether you are a businessman or a practicing professionals such as an attorney, a doctor or a consultant, the ability to ask the right questions is imperative along with the ability to capture the information that is important when an answer is provided. Sometimes knowing where to start is the toughest aspect of solving a problem. Usually a sound approach is breaking out complex problems into smaller more manageable components; as the old adage goes “Do you know how to eat an elephant? One bite at a time!” Check out how to break-down tough problems by following the simple 5W question framework.
  • 28 October 2018
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 171
  • Comments: 0
Perceptions and popularity of analytics technologies over time

Perceptions and popularity of analytics technologies over time

Will machine learning be the dominant technology focus over the next 2 years?

While doing some market analysis, we decided to take a look at how search terms were being used in Google around the world as they related to advanced analytics technologies. We picked five terms to compare over five years: risk analysis, big data, machine learning, Monte Carlo method, and forecasting. We then proceeded to download the data and apply some quick and dirty forecasting to see what would happen to the popularity of the search terms overtime.

  • 18 October 2017
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 148
  • Comments: 0
Multi-Dimensional Portfolio Optimization with @RISK

Many speak of organizational alignment, but how many tell you how to do it? Others present only the financial aspects of portfolio optimization but abstract from how this enables the organization to meets its business objectives. We are going to present a practical method that enables organizations to quickly build and optimize a portfolio of initiatives based on multiple quantitative and qualitative dimensions: Revenue Potential, Value of Information, Financial & Operational Viability and Strategic Fit.

This webinar is going to present these approaches and how they can be combined to improve both tactical and strategic decision making. We will also cover how this approach can dramatically improve organizational focus and overall business performance.

We will discuss these topics as well as present practical models and applications using @RISK.

  • 28 June 2016
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 188
  • Comments: 0
Why are analytics so important for the virtual organization? Read these quotes.

Since the mid-1990s academics and business leaders have been striving to focus their businesses on what is profitable and either partnering or outsourcing the rest. I have assembled a long list of quotes that define what a virtual organization is and why it's different than conventional organizations. The point of looking at these quotes is to demonstrate that none of these models or definitions can adequately be achieved without some heavy analytics and integration of both IT (the wire, the boxes and now the cloud's virtual machines) and IS - Information Systems (Applications) with other stakeholder systems and processes. Up till recently it could be argued that these things can and could be done because we had the technology. But the reality is, unless you were an Amazon, e-Bay or Dell, most firms did not necessarily have the money or the know-how to invest in these types of inovations.

With the proliferation of cloud services, we are finding new and cheaper ways to do things that put these strategies in the reach of more managers and smaller organizations. Everything is game... even the phone system can be handled by the cloud. Ok, I digress, Check out the following quotes and imagine being able to pull these off without analytics.

The next posts will treat some of the tools and technologies that are available to make these business strategies viable.

  • 26 June 2013
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 169
  • Comments: 0
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