Is Oracle Crystal Ball still relevant?

Is Oracle Crystal Ball still relevant?

Are Excel Simulation Add-Ins like Oracle Crystal Ball the right tools for decision making? This short blog deliberates on the pros and cons of Oracle Crystal Ball.
Author: Eric Torkia
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Decision Science Developper Stack

Decision Science Developper Stack

What tools should modern analysts master 3 tier design after Excel?

When it comes to having a full fledged developper stack to take your analysis to the next level, its not about tools only, but which tools are the most impactful when automating and sharing analysis for decision making or analyzing risk on projects and business operations. 

Author: Eric Torkia
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The Need For Speed 2019

The Need For Speed 2019

Comparing Simulation Performance for Crystal Ball, R, Julia and @RISK

The Need for Speed 2019 study compares Excel Add-in based modeling using @RISK and Crystal Ball to programming environments such as R and Julia. All 3 aspects of speed are covered [time-to-solution, time-to-answer and processing speed] in addition to accuracy and precision.
Author: Eric Torkia
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Article rating: 3.8
Bayesian Reasoning using R (Part 2) : Discrete Inference with Sequential Data

Bayesian Reasoning using R (Part 2) : Discrete Inference with Sequential Data

How I Learned to Think of Business as a Scientific Experiment

Imagine playing a game in which someone asks you to infer the number of sides of a polyhedron die based on the face numbers that show up in repeated throws of the die. The only information you are given beforehand is that the actual die will be selected from a set of seven die having these number of faces: (4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 18). Assuming you can trust the person who reports the outcome on each throw, after how many rolls of the die wil you be willing to specify which die was chosen?
Author: Robert Brown
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Bayesian Reasoning using R

Bayesian Reasoning using R

Gender Inference from a Specimen Measurement

Imagine that we have a population of something composed of two subset populations that, while distinct from each other, share a common characteristic that can be measured along some kind of scale. Furthermore, let’s assume that each subset population expresses this characteristic with a frequency distribution unique to each. In other words, along the scale of measurement for the characteristic, each subset displays varying levels of the characteristic among its members. Now, we choose a specimen from the larger population in an unbiased manner and measure this characteristic for this specific individual. Are we justified in inferring the subset membership of the specimen based on this measurement alone? Baye’s rule (or theorem), something you may have heard about in this age of exploding data analytics, tells us that we can be so justified as long as we assign a probability (or degree of belief) to our inference. The following discussion provides an interesting way of understanding the process for doing this. More importantly, I present how Baye’s theorem helps us overcome a common thinking failure associated with making inferences from an incomplete treatment of all the information we should use. I’ll use a bit of a fanciful example to convey this understanding along with showing the associated calculations in the R programming language.
Author: Robert Brown
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All Posts Term: Collaboration
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Why are analytics so important for the virtual organization? Read these quotes.

Jun 26 2013
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Since the mid-1990s academics and business leaders have been striving to focus their businesses on what is profitable and either partnering or outsourcing the rest. I have assembled a long list of quotes that define what a virtual organization is and why it's different than conventional organizations. The point of looking at these quotes is to demonstrate that none of these models or definitions can adequately be achieved without some heavy analytics and integration of both IT (the wire, the boxes and now the cloud's virtual machines) and IS - Information Systems (Applications) with other stakeholder systems and processes. Up till recently it could be argued that these things can and could be done because we had the technology. But the reality is, unless you were an Amazon, e-Bay or Dell, most firms did not necessarily have the money or the know-how to invest in these types of inovations.

With the proliferation of cloud services, we are finding new and cheaper ways to do things that put these strategies in the reach of more managers and smaller organizations. Everything is game... even the phone system can be handled by the cloud. Ok, I digress, Check out the following quotes and imagine being able to pull these off without analytics.

The next posts will treat some of the tools and technologies that are available to make these business strategies viable.

The Virtual Organization and Information Technology (Part 5/5)

 

Collaboration and TechnologyOrganizations seeking to develop a virtual business model must also be in a position to effectively implement it on a business level and on a technological level. (Venkatraman, 1994; Venkatraman & Henderson, 1993,1998).
 
One of today’s hottest IT topics is how to cheaply and effectively inter-connect processes. Collaboration emerged out of the relative cheapness and ubiquity of Internet technologies. Champy (2002) states ”E-business is a natural reaction to today’s competitive environment[i]. But e-business means a lot of things to a lot of people. In current literature, e-business has taken on several definitions over time i.e.:
 
·         Strategic approach
·         A set of enabling technologies (Porter, 2001),
 
Since technology is a critical success factor to any virtual organizing strategy, the analysis of e-business is interesting due to its business focus and its ability to flexibly and rapidly support changing business needs and requirements. In essence, e-business is a composite of the above-mentioned perspectives and whose definition can be used inter-changeably with virtual organizing because of its open technologies and collaborative strategies.

 

The Virtual Organization and Processes (Part 4/5)

How should you look at processes when designing a virtual organization?

In order to effectively manage activities across organizations' it becomes critical to have certain processes in place to manage as well as measure performance and quality (Hammer, 2001; Champy, 2002; P-CMM v2.00, July 2001). According to Venkatraman (1994), organizations seeking to effectively integrate with business partners must first get their house in order through the use of BPR – Business Process Redesign/Re-engineering. Hammer (2001) says that for those who have re-engineered their internal business processes and extracted most of the value available internally, must now look at integrating and re-engineering externally to yield the next gains in value and profitability.

 

The Virtual Organization and Strategies (Part 3/5)

This article highlights and discusses Venkatraman and Henderson's take on the various vectors of Virtual Strategy.

What is a virtual strategy? What does it cover within the company? Who is affected? Who benefits? Venkatraman & Henderson (1998) reflect these questions in a 3 vector and 3 stages model (presented in Figure 5) that is aligned in spirit with Chesbrough & Teece's view that no one formally defined structure will ensure the success of a virtual organization.

The virtual organization – Competencies and Resources (Part 2/5)

This article covers the competencies, resources and assets that must be developped when making the transition to virtual organizing

A variety of authors have generated lists of firm capabilities and resources that may enable firms to conceive of and implement value-creating strategies (Barney, 1991; Bharadwaj, 2000).

In order to better define Venkatraman & Henderson's virtual organization, we have broken it down into components that are inspired by Barneys' (1991) three generic resource types and Nitin Nohria's (2003) model of organizational competencies; competencies that have characterized firms who performed exceptionally and developed or maintained a leadership position over the last 10 years. Nohria also suggests that to achieve overall success you need to excel in all 4 primary competencies and at least 2 of the secondary (See Figure 3). However Nohria emphasizes execution as primary means of success and differentiation.

Defining the Virtual Organization (Part 1/5)

IBM PC - A virtual EnterpriseTraditional definitions of the Virtual Organization have mostly taken a commodity-based, view of the interactions among partners (Kanter, 1994; Chesborough & Teece, 1996). One of the most notable examples of this type of virtual strategy to produce and deliver a product is the IBM PC. The early success of this venture was based on the same principals as those presented by Chesbrough & Teece's (1996) definition of a virtual organization:

Collaborative modeling using predictive analytics

When building models we are often confronted with assumptions that evolve over time. In most cases it is important to capture these changes to keep our model relevant. Over the last decade, Business Intelligence solutions have created a culture of self-service IS information.  Given this democratization and decentralized access to data has created many opportunities and pitfalls for business analysts and decision-makers. We are going to outline some opportunities and pitfalls relating to shared modeling and a few strategies to get started.

This post presents the opportunities and challenges stemming from moving towards a distributed modeling paradigm in the organization. Also presented is a high-level integrated predictive/collaborative planning process.

Processes, simulation and networks - Building meaningful analysis

For almost 15 years we have been witnessing a fundamental shift in how we do business, how we live and how we envision the world. Some have referred to this as a Paradigm Shift (Senge, 1991) brought on by cheaper and more accessible technologies (Ashkenas et al. 1995). As business people, we are constantly faced with solving problems and driving results, but that task is becoming more difficult because the lay of the land has changed and is going to continue to change – for everybody and every industry.

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