Modeling a Dynamic Trade War using Julia: Assumptions, Simulation, and Impacts on the US Economy

Modeling a Dynamic Trade War using Julia: Assumptions, Simulation, and Impacts on the US Economy

Building a simple dynamic simulation in Julia


This article explains a simplified simulation using game theory (the prisoner's dilemma) to analyze the impacts of imposing tariffs between the US and its major trading partners, highlighting potential short-term economic benefits such as increased revenues and domestic protection. The examples are coded in Julia and the files are available on github. https://github.com/etorkia/SharedDecisionModels/tree/main/PrisonnerGame
Author: Eric Torkia
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Is Oracle Crystal Ball still relevant?

Is Oracle Crystal Ball still relevant?

Are Excel Simulation Add-Ins like Oracle Crystal Ball the right tools for decision making? This short blog deliberates on the pros and cons of Oracle Crystal Ball.
Author: Eric Torkia
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Decision Science Developper Stack

Decision Science Developper Stack

What tools should modern analysts master 3 tier design after Excel?

When it comes to having a full fledged developper stack to take your analysis to the next level, its not about tools only, but which tools are the most impactful when automating and sharing analysis for decision making or analyzing risk on projects and business operations. 

Author: Eric Torkia
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The Need For Speed 2019

The Need For Speed 2019

Comparing Simulation Performance for Crystal Ball, R, Julia and @RISK

The Need for Speed 2019 study compares Excel Add-in based modeling using @RISK and Crystal Ball to programming environments such as R and Julia. All 3 aspects of speed are covered [time-to-solution, time-to-answer and processing speed] in addition to accuracy and precision.
Author: Eric Torkia
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Article rating: 3.8
Bayesian Reasoning using R (Part 2) : Discrete Inference with Sequential Data

Bayesian Reasoning using R (Part 2) : Discrete Inference with Sequential Data

How I Learned to Think of Business as a Scientific Experiment

Imagine playing a game in which someone asks you to infer the number of sides of a polyhedron die based on the face numbers that show up in repeated throws of the die. The only information you are given beforehand is that the actual die will be selected from a set of seven die having these number of faces: (4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 18). Assuming you can trust the person who reports the outcome on each throw, after how many rolls of the die wil you be willing to specify which die was chosen?
Author: Robert Brown
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The virtual organization – Competencies and Resources (Part 2/5)

Feb 02 2011

This article covers the competencies, resources and assets that must be developped when making the transition to virtual organizing

A variety of authors have generated lists of firm capabilities and resources that may enable firms to conceive of and implement value-creating strategies (Barney, 1991; Bharadwaj, 2000).

In order to better define Venkatraman & Henderson's virtual organization, we have broken it down into components that are inspired by Barneys' (1991) three generic resource types and Nitin Nohria's (2003) model of organizational competencies; competencies that have characterized firms who performed exceptionally and developed or maintained a leadership position over the last 10 years. Nohria also suggests that to achieve overall success you need to excel in all 4 primary competencies and at least 2 of the secondary (See Figure 3). However Nohria emphasizes execution as primary means of success and differentiation.

 For this reason, we have put it (execution) at the top of the model (see Figure 4) to illustrate the universal importance of this competency.

Primary Competencies 

Secondary Competencies 

  • Strategy
  • Culture
  • Structure
  • Execution
  • Mergers and Partnerships
  • Leadership
  • Talent
  • Innovation

Figure 3: Organizational Competencies - Nohria (2003)

Distinct from Nohria's (2003) approach in explaining company success, Barney suggests that numerous possible firm resources can be conveniently classified into three categories:

  • Physical (& Operational) capital resources (Williamson, 1975, Venkatraman & Henderson, 1993) include the IS/IT processes, IS/IT Infrastructure, Operational and Adminstratives processes, physical technology used in a firm, a firm's plant and equipment, its geographic location, and its access to raw materials.
  • Human capital resources (Becker, 1964) include the training, experience, judgment, intelligence, relationships, and insight of individual managers and workers in a firm.
  • Organizational capital resources (Tomer, 1987) include a firm's formal reporting structure, its formal and informal planning, controlling, and coordinating systems, as well as informal relations among groups within a firm and between a firm and those in its environment.

   

Figure 4: A resource-based view of the virtual organization

In order to create value and develop a sustained competitive advantage, organizations require several things: Strategy, Resources (Human, Capital or other) and infrastructure. Therefore by developing a thorough understanding of the virtual organization in terms of resources, it then becomes much easier to mobilize and align them to business objectives.

In our next section, we are going to look at how organizations can deploy their resources in alignment with their virtual strategy.

SOURCES

  • What really works, Nitin Nohria, William Joyce, and Bruce Robertson, Harvard Business Review – July 2003
  • Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage, Jay Barney, Journal of Mangagement, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1991
  • Markets and hierarchies, O. Williamson, New York Free Press, 1975
  • Human capital, G.S. Becker, New York, Columbia 1964
  • Organizational Capital: The path to higher productivity and well-being, J.F. Tomer, Preager 1987

 

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