RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

Let us assume we have a batch of historical data in a spreadsheet. Our mission-of-the-moment is to use this data and fit probability distributions that describe its past variability (or uncertainty). Consider using either Crystal Ball or ModelRisk to do this task. We offer free trials of both to registered users. If you register here, you can get yours too. Try fitting the same data using these two different packages. Let us know how and why one is better than the other. In demonstrating these capabilities, we gain first-hand experience on the usability and capabilities of the alternatives and which features compared have more priority. The best way to judge is to try them out for yourself.

With uncertainty and risk lurking around every corner, it is incumbent on us to account for it in our forward business projections, whether those predictions are financially-based or engineering-centric. For the design engineer, he may be expressing dimensional variance in terms of a tolerance around his nominal dimensions. But what does this mean? Does a simple range between upper and lower values accurately describe the variation?

With uncertainty and risk lurking around every corner, it is incumbent on us to account for it in our forward business projections, whether those predictions are financially-based or engineering-centric. For the design engineer, he may be expressing dimensional variance in terms of a tolerance around his nominal dimensions. But what does this mean? Does a simple range between upper and lower values accurately describe the variation?

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