RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

According to Prof Ronald A Howard (1992):

Three of the warranties that I would like to have in any decision situation are that:
  1. The decision approach I am using has all the terms and concepts used so clearly defined that I know both what I am talking about and what I am saying about it;
  2. I can readily interpret the results of the approach to see clearly the implications of choosing any alternative, including of course, the best one; and
  3. The procedure used to arrive at the recommendations does not violate the rules of logic (common sense).

Plain and simple... Source: Howard, R A (1992), Heathens, Heretics, and Cults, Interfaces, 22(6), 15-27.

  • 11 June 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 1899
  • Comments: 0

When building models we are often confronted with assumptions that evolve over time. In most cases it is important to capture these changes to keep our model relevant. Over the last decade, Business Intelligence solutions have created a culture of self-service IS information.  Given this democratization and decentralized access to data has created many opportunities and pitfalls for business analysts and decision-makers. We are going to outline some opportunities and pitfalls relating to shared modeling and a few strategies to get started.

This post presents the opportunities and challenges stemming from moving towards a distributed modeling paradigm in the organization. Also presented is a high-level integrated predictive/collaborative planning process.

  • 4 June 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 2550
  • Comments: 0

Prof Frank H Knight (1921) proposed that "risk" is randomness with knowable probabilities, and "uncertainty" is randomness with unknowable probabilities. However, risk and uncertainty both share features with randomness. The illustration below explains the relationship of the concepts better than words...

Source: Knight, F H (2002/1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Washington, DC: BeardBooks.

 

  • 1 June 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 2538
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 A brief review of Oracle and Microsoft database/application integration with Excel and Crystal Ball for comprehensive modeling

  • 29 May 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 2129
  • Comments: 0

 Quick overview of the parts of an optimization model in MS Excel.

  • 12 May 2009
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 2208
  • Comments: 0
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