RESEARCH ARTICLES | RISK + CRYSTAL BALL + ANALYTICS

Modeling Time-Series Forecasts with @RISK


Making decisions for the future is becoming harder and harder because of the ever increasing sources and rate of uncertainty that can impact the final outcome of a project or investment. Several tools have proven instrumental in assisting managers and decision makers tackle this: Time Series Forecasting, Judgmental Forecasting and Simulation.

This webinar is going to present these approaches and how they can be combined to improve both tactical and strategic decision making. We will also cover the role of analytics in the organization and how it has evolved over time to give participants strategies to mobilize analytics talent within the firm.

We will discuss these topics as well as present practical models and applications using @RISK.

  • 18 October 2011
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 2176
  • Comments: 0
The Need for Speed: A performance comparison of Crystal Ball, ModelRisk, @RISK and Risk Solver

Need for SpeedA detailed comparison of the top Monte-Carlo Simulation Tools for Microsoft Excel

There are very few performance comparisons available when considering the acquisition of an Excel-based Monte Carlo solution. It is with this in mind and a bit of intellectual curiosity that we decided to evaluate Oracle Crystal Ball, Palisade @Risk, Vose ModelRisk and Frontline Risk Solver in terms of speed, accuracy and precision. We ran over 20 individual tests and 64 million trials to prepare comprehensive comparison of the top Monte-Carlo Tools.

  • 20 September 2011
  • Author: Eric Torkia
  • Number of views: 2055
  • Comments: 0
Business analytics stratifies into three levels of inquiry and findings beginning with descriptive, followed by predictive, and finally prescriptive methods as follows:
  • 23 December 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 1131
  • Comments: 0
Business analytics stratifies into three levels of inquiry and findings beginning with descriptive, followed by predictive, and finally prescriptive methods as follows:

Dr David Berlinski (2000) makes the historical observation that two great ideas have most influenced the technological progress of the Western world:

The first is the calculus, the second the algorithm. The calculus and the rich body of mathematical analysis to which it gave rise made modern science possible; but it has been the algorithm that has made possible the modern world. (Berlinski, p. xv)

Dr Berlinski concludes that:

The great era of mathematical physics is now over. The three-hundred-year effort to represent the material world in mathematical terms has exhausted itself. The understanding that it was to provide is infinitely closer than it was when Isaac Newton wrote in the late seventeenth century, but it is still infinitely far away…. The algorithm has come to occupy a central place in our imagination. It is the second great scientific idea of the West. There is no third. (Berlinski, pp. xv-xvi)

Source: Berlinski, D (2000). The Advent of the Algorithm: The 300-Year Journey from an Idea to the Computer. San Diego, CA: Harcourt.

Related Posts: Enter the Algorithm

  • 11 June 2010
  • Author: mckibbinusa
  • Number of views: 1076
  • Comments: 0
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